In search of an S&P upgrade, India got a shock

NEW DELHI: S & P Takahira Ogawa, credit analyst listened politely as officials of the Ministry of Finance made a pitch for an hour for a ratings upgrade, citing prospects for economic growth, income and efforts to contain the fiscal deficit government.
At the meeting two weeks ago, officials argued that the tax returns were rising and falling levels of debt relative to GDP, two officials who were at the meeting, told Reuters.
Singapore-based Ogawa gave no indication of what I was thinking - and could not be contacted for his version of events - but obviously it was convinced.
On Wednesday, ratings agency lowered its outlook on India's BBB-rating to negative from stable and warned that there was a probability of one in three of losing investment grade, sending shockwaves through the ministry. His decision could raise borrowing costs for India and undermine foreign investor confidence in Asia's third largest economy.
"We did not expect this downgrade," said an adviser to the ministry.
The misplaced optimism in court suggests the Treasury may be out of touch with the views of private economists, investors and even the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on the faltering economy. But it also reflects the view in New Delhi that India is unfairly burden of a low sovereign rating.
In February, the chief economist of the Ministry of Finance Kaushik Basu counsel complained that the rapid growth of India was not reflected in the ratings of global agencies. "In relative terms, India has become a better investment destination," said Basu.
As the news broke, senior finance ministry officials huddled in their offices, their eyes glued to monitors and television screens for signs of an exodus of investors from the markets.
"The initial reaction was to all of us turn on our televisions to see what is happening in the stock market," said ministry adviser. Shares fell more than 1 percent in the immediate aftermath, but recovered to close 0.33 percent.
The first public comment finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, in the court - "not panic" - seemed intended both to his own ministry, and the public at large.
As the shocking news was a warning, authorities say the best they can do for now is to take additional measures to restore confidence in the history of India.
India has lost some of its luster recently. After growing at an enviable rate averaged more than 8 percent annually over the past five years, expanded less than 7 percent in the last fiscal year, its slowest pace in three years.
The same 2011/12 fiscal year ending March 30 saw its current account and fiscal deficits blow out beyond the objectives because of a bill increasing subsidies, especially fuel, and rising oil prices and imports of gold.
"If we can keep our budget targets in the track, which would enhance our credibility in the market, and can encourage the rating agency to reconsider its decision," said a finance ministry official, who declined to be identified because was not authorized to speak to the media.
The S & P cut the force to an avalanche of criticism over the government's economic management. Earlier this month, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, sat in silence while a group of his peers, including RBI Governor, said that the lack of progress in economic reform has left the economy at a frightening .
"The broader message to everyone in government is that we have to go a little faster and a bit faster," said Dipak Dasgupta, an economist at the top of the Ministry of Finance.
"We could go a bit fast and everyone seems to think that we need to hurry. Okay, so we will.
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East grapples with growth hurdles

Calcutta, April 22: A lack of political will combined with the absence of infrastructure, skilled workforce and the necessary investment climate to prevent the eastern part of the country from realizing its growth potential.
During a session titled "The growth of eastern India," its economic and socio-political challenges "on Friday, speakers ranging from politicians, economists and academics cite the factors that have impeded the growth of the region. The session was organized by the Eastern Division of the American Chamber of Commerce in partnership with The Telegraph.
The eastern part of India, consisting of Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and the Northeast 'can act as the gateway to commerce, trade and cultural exchanges with Southeast Asian countries. However, widespread poverty, lack of infrastructure, declining agricultural growth, poor range of financial institutions and low literacy levels are some of the key challenges.
Rudrangshu Mukherjee of The Telegraph, the moderator of the panel discussion, set in motion the session by saying that the story of the east is a "long saga of unfulfillment if not refuse." He said the reasons for the lack of growth should be emphasized instead of painting a rosy picture.
Higher politician Sougata Roy noted that the lack of proper policy was stunted. "The growth in the east to depend primarily on agriculture. But the region the maximum number of cases of poverty," he said.
He said the lack of political clarity on environmental issues continued to hide expensive investments in the region. "Given the overall pessimistic situation of the country, the growth prospect of the region is not clear," he said.
Economist Dipankar Dasgupta said there was a gap between the total number of proposed investments and the actual implementation.
Industrialists said there was a need to define policies to attract investment. Siraj A. Chaudhry, president of Cargill India, said the center had come with enabling policies to encourage investment. B.L. Bagra, Chairman and MD of Nalco, said: "We need to create an atmosphere not only to attract investment, but to preserve it."
Surendra Munshi, emeritus professor of sociology at IIM Calcutta, said although the politicians had created problems, the rest of society need to come up with a vision for the development of the region
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Inflation will remain at same level: Pranab

Inflation remains in the range of 6-7 percent in the current fiscal year, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on Tuesday, adding a slowdown in industrial production and the general rise in prices remained major problems for economic policy makers.

"The government has made every effort to demand-and supply-related problems and I am convinced that during the current period of inflation would be some moderation to see and stay within the 6 to 7 percent range," Mukherjee said annual general meeting of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) in New Delhi.

The Finance Minister said a sharp slowdown in economic growth in 2011-12 was disappointing and the government expects a turnaround in the current year.
The slowdown in the growth of the economy in 2011-12 is mainly due to the slowdown in the industrial sector registered a growth of 3.9 percent in 2011-12 compared to 7.2 percent in 2010-11 and a moderate growth of 2.5 percent in the agricultural sector following a high growth rate of 7 percent in 2010-11, "he said.

Services sector recorded relatively robust growth of 9.4 percent in 2011-12.

India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is estimated to fall to 6.9 percent in 2011-12 compared to 8.4 percent in the previous years.

In the Union budget, the Minister of Finance projected GDP growth of 7.6 percent with a range of (plus / minus 0.25 percent) for the current fiscal year.

Mukherjee said the global economic situation continued to remain volatile, and there must be willing to confront external shocks. "We must always be prepared to confront external shocks and to a real-time basis to respond."

The Finance Minister said the government was concerned about the recent slowdown in industrial production.

The industrial production growth, measured in terms of the index of industrial production (IIP), declined to 4.1 percent in February, according to official data released last week.

Cumulative growth of industrial production has fallen to 3.5 percent in April-February 2011 to 12 compared to 8.1 percent in the corresponding period the previous year.

"The delay can be attributed to both domestic and global factors. Domestic factors, namely the tightening of monetary policy, keeping inflation under control has led to delays in investment and growth in the industrial sector," he said.

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Spielberg studio gets financing from Reliance Entertainment

Financing is the second part of a 2009 agreement to fund the study. In this Agreement, provided Reliance Entertainment, a unit of Reliance ADA Group, the partnership with $ 325 million in capital for an unknown game.

The studio that made Spielberg's "War Horse" and "Help" last year, will produce three to five films a year, a reduction from 4-6, it initially announced, said the person.

Reliance in 2009 investment came after months of negotiations with DreamWorks, which reduced the Indian company investment from a planned $ 650 million, as large-scale financing from banks became more difficult to secure. At the time, said the two companies said in a statement that the investment was the first stage.

The Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) distributes and markets the DreamWorks film under a five-year distribution agreement for "about" six films a year.

Reliance will retain its rights to distribute DreamWorks-produced films in India, the person familiar with the new transaction said.

DreamWorks produces Spielberg's "Lincoln", scheduled to be released in december, with News Corp. 's (NWSA.O) Fox studio, according to the movie information website IMDB.com. The film will be released by Disney in the U.S. and Fox in Japan.

The financing deal was first reported by The New York Times on its website but no information on the economic conditions were included. DreamWorks had no comment. Reliance representatives could not be reached for comment.

Reliance has been active in the financing of films in recent years, and said at the time of the 2009 announcement that it had invested more than $ 1 billion to produce films in English, Hindi and other Indian languages.

It also had development deals with several manufacturers, including George Clooney's Smokehouse Productions and Tom Hanks Play Tone Productions and launched last year, the Bollywood movie "Bodyguard" in the U.S.

The bankers to the new joint venture, led by JP Morgan, did not change the person said. Group provided senior debt of $ 325 million at the time.


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