In search of an S&P upgrade, India got a shock

NEW DELHI: S & P Takahira Ogawa, credit analyst listened politely as officials of the Ministry of Finance made a pitch for an hour for a ratings upgrade, citing prospects for economic growth, income and efforts to contain the fiscal deficit government.
At the meeting two weeks ago, officials argued that the tax returns were rising and falling levels of debt relative to GDP, two officials who were at the meeting, told Reuters.
Singapore-based Ogawa gave no indication of what I was thinking - and could not be contacted for his version of events - but obviously it was convinced.
On Wednesday, ratings agency lowered its outlook on India's BBB-rating to negative from stable and warned that there was a probability of one in three of losing investment grade, sending shockwaves through the ministry. His decision could raise borrowing costs for India and undermine foreign investor confidence in Asia's third largest economy.
"We did not expect this downgrade," said an adviser to the ministry.
The misplaced optimism in court suggests the Treasury may be out of touch with the views of private economists, investors and even the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on the faltering economy. But it also reflects the view in New Delhi that India is unfairly burden of a low sovereign rating.
In February, the chief economist of the Ministry of Finance Kaushik Basu counsel complained that the rapid growth of India was not reflected in the ratings of global agencies. "In relative terms, India has become a better investment destination," said Basu.
As the news broke, senior finance ministry officials huddled in their offices, their eyes glued to monitors and television screens for signs of an exodus of investors from the markets.
"The initial reaction was to all of us turn on our televisions to see what is happening in the stock market," said ministry adviser. Shares fell more than 1 percent in the immediate aftermath, but recovered to close 0.33 percent.
The first public comment finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, in the court - "not panic" - seemed intended both to his own ministry, and the public at large.
As the shocking news was a warning, authorities say the best they can do for now is to take additional measures to restore confidence in the history of India.
India has lost some of its luster recently. After growing at an enviable rate averaged more than 8 percent annually over the past five years, expanded less than 7 percent in the last fiscal year, its slowest pace in three years.
The same 2011/12 fiscal year ending March 30 saw its current account and fiscal deficits blow out beyond the objectives because of a bill increasing subsidies, especially fuel, and rising oil prices and imports of gold.
"If we can keep our budget targets in the track, which would enhance our credibility in the market, and can encourage the rating agency to reconsider its decision," said a finance ministry official, who declined to be identified because was not authorized to speak to the media.
The S & P cut the force to an avalanche of criticism over the government's economic management. Earlier this month, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, sat in silence while a group of his peers, including RBI Governor, said that the lack of progress in economic reform has left the economy at a frightening .
"The broader message to everyone in government is that we have to go a little faster and a bit faster," said Dipak Dasgupta, an economist at the top of the Ministry of Finance.
"We could go a bit fast and everyone seems to think that we need to hurry. Okay, so we will.
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